On Sunday, The Seattle Times published an interesting article about a LAPD program that tries to predict where and when crimes will occur using sophisticated computer software and data on where crime has happened in the recent past (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2012812815_crimeprediction05.html). The focus of this research is on burglaries.
The research uses a relatively new theory of crime prediction called exact or near-repeat effect. This theory says that when criminals burglarize a home, it and its neighboring homes are highly likely to be burglarized again in the near future.
This theory views criminals as rational decision-makers who look for opportunities to steal where the target (in this case a house) is easy to enter without getting caught and has enough in it to be worth the effort. So, a house in a neighborhood that does not have an alarm or where no one will call the cops is more vulnerable than a house that displays an alarm sign in a neighborhood that has a reputation for calling 911 at any sign of suspicious behavior.
We citizens can use this understanding to prevent burglaries even without fancy computer models. We don't have to psychoanalyze a crook for his/her inner motivations either. We can look at our homes and our neighborhoods for vulnerabilities/opportunities that criminals might look for and then take those vulnerabilities/opportunities away from the criminal.
You may have heard about CPTED, Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design. Much of the basis for CPTED is from this rational thinking model. For more on CPTED you can go to http://sheriff.snoco.org/Documents/CPTED.pdf. Use it to look at your home and neighborhood to improve the security around you.
Our goal in preventing crime should mean not to be a victim in the first place. But sometimes someone in our safe neighborhood is victimized. The assumption of the LAPD computer program is that a burglarized home and its neighbors will be victimized again. If this happens in your neighborhood, this is not a time for panic, fear, or hand wringing. It is a time to take stalk of your home and your neighborhood. There may be a new opportunity/vulnerability that the crook has found that might need fixing. It is also a time for talking to your neighbors, to know what happened. That way you individually and your neighborhood as a community can find ways to improve your security and break any future repeat burglaries.
This is article explains a little more about the LAPD program:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100222094826.htm
This paper talks about the research involved with the LAPD program (if you read this, you’re really into the subject):
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~mbshort/papers/crime2.pdf
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